AI: How at-risk is your job? A simple, bordering on useless, formula.

Ok, so don’t take this too seriously, I wouldn’t give whatever number you come up with here a lot of weight. But I do think the underlying logic will hold as we do see jobs phased out by AI.

via Midjourney

I’ve been learning about AI, thinking about AI, and writing about AI lately. If we’re being honest, not always in that order. There’s a lot of articles from a lot of people out there. So damned many. And we’re all fucking guessing.

But I’ve got what I think is a good guess at formula for determining how soon you’ll be replaced by AI — but only relative to other jobs. And with massive possibility for error.

And with the caveat that AI isn’t quite as ready as the panicked masses attest.

As a creative, I’m less and less impressed with AI.

I’m not going to make you read through the whole thing, I’m gonna put the formula right up here, and if you want more explanation, or to explore the thought process, you can read on.

Here’s the formula:

Your very loosely estimated risk level, on a scale of 1–10 is:

((A * 2B)/10) + C

A. Your words-to-numbers-or-reverse rating.

On a scale of 1–5, how much of your job involves explaining numbers, or turning text into numbers?

B. Your relative cost to employ.

1–5, how much you cost, relative to the other employees at your company, 3 being average?

C. How many people are employed at your company in your role.

1–5, what percentage of your company’s total employees fall into your general role/org? With 1 being 10% or fewer, 4 being 80% or fewer, etc. Use decimals if you want, or round to integers, this isn’t an exact science.

Multiply A by 2B, divide that by 10, add it C.